Former NSW Blues captain PAUL GALLEN will feature on Nine's LIVE AND EXCLUSIVE coverage of the State of Origin series opener, from 7pm AEDT on Wednesday!
The Maroons keep on talking about that Queensland spirit.
It was there in 1995, when that team of nobodies beat a pretty star-studded NSW team 3-0. I'll give them that.
But since then, we haven't really seen it.
That period of dominance Queensland had was built on brilliant individual players who became a great team. They had probably three future Immortals in that side, in Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston and Billy Slater; and that's not counting blokes like Greg Inglis and Darren Lockyer.
Now, the Maroons are without those legends, they're missing some players and have picked 17 rookies in their 27-man squad. Let's see if the Queensland spirit helps them.
Obviously I'm one-eyed - but I can't see anything other than a NSW win in the State of Origin series opener.
The only thing that can beat the Blues is complacency and with Brad Fittler at the helm, I don't think that will be an issue. I think they will prepare as hard as usual and come game night, they'll be primed and ready to go.
Freddy handles the NSW coaching job well. I think he's pretty ruthless, to be honest.
Perhaps with the kookiness, with how friendly and nice Freddy is, a lot of people don't see past that to the incredible competitor inside.
I compare Freddy to a Cameron Smith-type leader. He commands respect. When he speaks, people listen, because of his standing in the game.
Cameron Smith is ruthless. So is Freddy. He was as a player, as a captain, and now he is as a coach.
Having played Test footy under Cameron, he demanded what he wanted and when he didn't get it, he wasn't happy.
I think Freddy is the same. I was coached by him only once, in a City-Country game, and I certainly found that.
When you're in meetings, whether it's video analysis or one of Freddy's breathing techniques, when he spoke, everyone listened. You wouldn't want to be the person whose phone went off, because there'd be a blow-up. You wouldn't want to talk while he's talking. No one got out of line.
Everyone's got that respect for him. That's what Freddy brings. Don't let the kookiness fool you. Freddy is a ruthless winner who wants NSW to beat Queensland and he'll do everything in his power to make that happen.
I expect no complacency at all from the Blues, and that's bad news for the Maroons.
NSW are deserved favourites and that tag won't bother them at all. The Queenslanders are the ones who like being the underdogs - somehow they were underdogs in most of the series they won during the eight in a row! Don't ask me how.
None of that will matter to Freddy and the Blues. They will be ready come Wednesday night in Adelaide.
MIDDLE BATTLE QUEENSLAND'S ONLY HOPE
Queensland will still be dangerous. I don't think game one will be a hammering, by any stretch of the imagination.
Any side with a middle like Josh Papalii and Christian Welch, their starting props, is formidable. Then there's big Tino Fa'asuamaleaui at lock, a fantastic young player on debut. The middle is where NSW have to be strong to ensure there's no upset.
You look at the Blues front-row of Daniel Saifiti and Junior Paulo. It's Paulo's first game and Saifiti was probably a bit of a shock selection last year in game two.
If the Blues can limit Queensland's go-forward, it will limit the amount of space that their backs get. And the Maroons backs ... on paper at least, there's just no comparison.
Cameron Munster can pull something out of the bag. Daly Cherry-Evans had a tough year at Manly.
In the NSW halves, Nathan Cleary was terrific all season and voted by his peers as the RLPA Players' Champion. Until his last couple of games, Luke Keary was arguably the form player of the comp.
Throw James Tedesco on top of that, Jack Wighton as the Dally M Player of the Year, then the likes of Josh Addo-Carr, the Blues backs can cause far more damage than Queensland's.
But again, the game needs to be won in the middle first. Saifiti, Paulo and Jake Trbojevic really need to stand up for NSW.
Papalii is an outstanding player and Welch is so underrated for mine. It says something when a guy can be winning premierships and Origin selection and he still feels underrated.
You know what you're going to get from Welch: 150 metres every week, he's not going to miss a tackle, he can offload and pass the ball. He may not have that stand-out body frame, like a Papalii or a Paulo, but he's such a good player. So is young Tino.
That's why I'm not tipping a runaway victory for the Blues. Those Maroons middle forwards can keep them in it. There's a big responsibility on Saifiti and Paulo, while Trbojevic has been there and done it plenty of times; hopefully he can lead the way with his quality and experience.
Payne Haas will also be a factor in the middle, coming off the bench, and I have no doubt that he'll be better in his second crack at Origin.
He would have been training really hard in the last five weeks, after Brisbane won the wooden spoon. He couldn't have done more in a poor team this season and he'd have been training his backside off after being given another chance in Origin.
He's a really good player, on two fronts. On top of the exceptional talent, you know what you're going to get from him: big minutes, if need be, big metres and solid defence. He's probably got to work on a bit more ball-play in his game, but that's a job for the off-season. What he can already offer this NSW team is great.
It will be a big battle, no doubt, in Origin I.
But I'm confidently tipping a NSW win - hopefully on the way to winning the series 3-0.
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